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Apples to Algorithms
Where A/B Testing Goes Wrong: Why your "winning" ad results might lying to you.

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by Tod Maffin
YouTube, Bluesky, TikTok, and others
The Top Three
🏆 THE INDUSTRY’S MOST IMPORTANT STORIES TODAY
🥇 META A/B TESTS MIGHT BE MISLEADING
Research shows A/B tests on platforms like Facebook and Instagram aren't always comparing apples to apples. That’s because Meta’s $META ( ▲ 1.79% ) algorithm shows each ad variation to different audiences, typically the ones most likely to convert. So the "winning" ad might have just been shown to a more responsive group, not because it's objectively better.
This practice, called divergent delivery, skews results by optimizing performance, not accuracy. more
✅ According to the study, A/B tests can be reliable when optimizing creative on the same platform, with the same audience.
❌ But misleading for broader marketing decisions like messaging, pricing, or product strategy across platforms.
⚠️ Don’t assume the best-performing Meta ad will work on TikTok, YouTube, or elsewhere.
🥈 GOOGLE UNVEILS AI MAX
Google $GOOGL ( ▼ 7.85% ) announced a complete overhaul of its search ad features today, with AI Max. Set to roll out globally in beta later this month, AI Max aims to integrate advanced targeting and creative tools into Search campaigns. more
Search Term Matching: The tech analyzes an advertiser's current keyword list, creative assets, and URLs to identify relevant search queries, even if those exact keywords haven’t been identified by the advertiser. This helps expand the reach of ads by matching them to potential searches that may have otherwise been overlooked.
Text Customization: The new text customization feature generates headlines and descriptions based on user queries, adapting to changing intent.
Final URL Expansion: Sends users to the most relevant pages on the website.
Granular Controls: Advertisers can target users based on geographic intent at the ad group level and include or exclude specific brands.
Updated Reporting: Provides data into search terms, headline performance, and asset KPIs like spend and conversions.
🥉 BREAKING UP GOOGLE’S AD TECH KINGDOM
The U.S. Department of Justice is pushing for Google to sell off key parts of its adtech business — AdX and DoubleClick for Publishers — to address concerns of illegal monopoly behaviour. In yesterday's court filing, the DOJ proposed an aggressive, three-phase plan designed to increase competition in the digital ad ecosystem. If successful, the interventions could mark a major shift in the adtech industry. more
Phase 1: Google would be required to share AdX’s real-time bidding data with competing ad servers via Prebid.
Phase 2: Google must make the auction logic behind DFP open-source, letting third parties run the final auction.
Phase 3: The full divestiture of AdX and DFP, with the process overseen by a court-appointed trustee and subject to DOJ approval. Once complete, Google would be prohibited from operating any ad exchange for 10 years.
The DOJ’s plan also includes transparency measures, such as limiting Google’s use of first-party data in bidding and purchasing digital ad inventory.
Today’s Other News
📰 EVERYTHING ELSE THAT MATTERS
Advertising 📣
Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 0.2% ) announced several updates today:
Ads Studio, its AI tool, is now available in Microsoft Advertising Editor.
Audience ad updates include the ability to add your business logo and call-to-actions to ads.
A new diagnostics tool for Audience ads will check campaign settings, billing, editorial, bid strategy, and conversions, offering actions to resolve issues.
Video assets can now be added to native campaigns as an additional asset type.
Smart campaigns will soon upgrade to Performance Max.
YouTube ads has a new combo ad format in Beta: 6-second Bumper Ads + 7–15 second Non-Skippable Ads. This lets you run both formats in a single ad group with the new Bumpers + 15 Seconds setup. more
Google is integrating retail media data into YouTube ads via Display & Video 360 (DV360), with partners like Costco, Intuit, Regal Cinemas, and United Airlines. Google plans to add more partners to the program over time. more
The platform also rolled out new updates for CTV ads, expanding its partnerships and ad placements across more streaming providers. Ads can also now run during more "tentpole" moments like live shows and sports events. more
DV360 campaigns are also now integrated with Tubi $FOX ( ▲ 2.57% ) and Spotify $SPOT ( ▲ 3.26% ) for video and audio ads, while you can also now place ads within Roblox $RBLX ( ▼ 0.04% ) .
Starting May 15, Google will remove the "Video Games (Casual & Online)" sensitive category from Blocking controls. This means you'll no longer be able to block ads from video games, online games, and downloadable games using this category.
Google is testing a new, simplified ad groups interface for the Search campaigns console, featuring fewer options and a design similar to the one used in Demand Gen campaigns. more
Meta Ads has rolled out a "Translate Text" feature that lets your ad's primary text and headline be translated into other languages. This means that your ads could be delivered beyond your selected language(s) if Meta's data shows that some of your audience may understand other languages. While it's currently disabled by default, be sure to double-check the setting at the ad level to ensure it's set to your preferences. more
TikTok Ban 🎵
Despite ongoing uncertainty around TikTok’s future in the U.S., many advertisers are pressing ahead with their spending. New data shows that more than half of brand, retailer, and agency professionals plan to continue investing in the platform, while a quarter remain undecided while the platform remains in limbo.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump suggested he may extend the TikTok sell-off deadline (again). The app is still technically banned in the U.S. but continues to operate due to a stay of execution from Trump. He's hopeful of finding a solution to keep TikTok available and could extend the deadline beyond the current June 18 target if no deal is reached. more
Search 🔍
📉 Algo woes: For the past week, Brazilian news publishers have been voicing frustration with Google Discover. The feed is reportedly showing irrelevant content while sidelining local news sources. One user said their reach dropped 80% in Brazil, saying Discover is “showing random posts and low-relevance websites.” more
Technical Difficulties 🧑💻
A WordPress bug is causing WooCommerce sites to display a fatal error, crashing e-commerce sites. The problem comes from a single line of code, and while a workaround is available, The WooCommerce team is working on a permanent fix through a patch. more
💼 Help wanted: X is on the hunt for a PR expert to improve its public image. Since Musk's acquisition, the platform has faced challenges with advertisers and reporters. Now, sources say X is looking for a communications leader to help improve its relationships. more
The Ticker
📈 HOW DIGITAL MARKETING STOCKS ARE DOING
Social Media | |
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Meta | |
Snapchat | |
Yelp | |
Ad Platforms | |
Microsoft | |
Amazon | |
Spotify | |
Ad Tech | |
Magnite | |
Integral Ad Science | |
The Trade Desk | |
Criteo | |
DoubleVerify | |
Marketing Agencies | |
Omnicom Group | |
IPG Group | |
WPP |
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