Ad Spend on the Edge

A trade war and higher tariffs mean higher ad costs—who pays the price?

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The Top Three

🏆 THE INDUSTRY’S MOST IMPORTANT STORIES TODAY

🥇 MARKETING IN A TRADE WAR

Advertisers are preparing for a slowdown in ad spend as the Trump administration's tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and Canada create uncertainty. According to the IAB, 95% of U.S. advertisers are concerned about the impact on their budgets, with 45% planning to reduce overall ad spend.

The slowdown is expected to hit hardest mid-2025, particularly in the retail, consumer electronics, and media sectors. Marketing Brew has a great breakdown of the challenges marketers face.

  • Business leaders warn that tariffs could drive inflation and lead to immediate price hikes. Some companies may pass on these costs to consumers, while others might absorb them, affecting profitability and ad budgets.

  • Automakers, who spent $2.6 billion on TV ads in 2024, could feel the pinch, as their ad spend represents a significant portion of global revenue for major ad agencies.

  • Big Tech like Google $GOOG ( ▼ 0.01% ) and Meta $META ( ▼ 0.35% ) , which rely heavily on ad spend from e-commerce marketplaces like Shein and Temu, may also see disruptions due to ongoing tariff pressures.

🥈 X FOR VIRALITY, THREADS FOR GROWTH, BLUESKY FOR NICHE

Which posting platform should you prioritize?: Buffer released a report today looking at how engagement patterns differ across X, Threads, and Bluesky.

  • X: High-risk, high-reward with a wide spread of engagement. While most posts get few interactions, viral posts can gain massive traction.

    • Strategy: Post consistently to increase chances of a breakout post. Experiment with shareable content like memes, hot takes, and news-driven posts.

  • Threads: Predictable growth with moderate engagement spread.

    • Strategy: Focus on conversation-driven content to encourage replies and build a community. Post regularly to see steady, long-term audience growth.

  • Bluesky: Growing and reliable engagement with a smaller spread. Growth is slower but more predictable.

    • Strategy: Create for specific audiences and focus on thoughtful, discussion-based content. Expect steady but slower growth compared to the other platforms.

🥉 DOJ STANDS FIRM ON GOOGLE BREAKUP

😲 Chrome alone: Despite Google’s attempts to block it, President Trump’s Department of Justice is pushing forward with its efforts to break up the tech giant. On Friday, the DOJ reaffirmed its demand for Google to divest its Chrome browser, and possibly Android, as part of its ongoing search antitrust case. more

  • The DOJ is also continuing to push blocking Google’s $20 billion deal with Apple, which made Chrome the default browser on iPhones.

  • Alongside these major proposals, the DOJ has suggested several changes, including letting publishers, websites, and content creators opt out of having their content crawled for search indexing, AI training, or repurposing for AI-generated content.

Today’s Other News

📰 EVERYTHING ELSE THAT MATTERS

Advertising 📣

  • Google $GOOG ( ▼ 0.01% ) has removed more than 180 fraudulent apps from the Play Store after IAS exposed an ad fraud scheme, dubbed Vapor Threat, which generated millions in ad revenue. The apps, disguised as health, fitness, or utility tools, initially worked but later displayed full-screen ads, making devices nearly unusable. more 

    • Fraudsters used multiple ad networks and aggressive tactics to inflate rankings, with some reaching 1M installs in just 24 days. The apps accumulated 56M downloads and generated 200M bid requests daily.

  • Roku $ROKU ( ▲ 1.16% ) appointed Lauren Benedict as VP of global ad sales and partnerships today. Based in New York, Benedict will oversee global revenue efforts across Roku Media. The exec previously served as chief revenue officer at Spotter and held senior roles at MNTN and Hulu. more

  • 🫠 Translation: Sorry, not sorry: Google has responded to publisher concerns about AI Mode, specifically the fear that its new search interface will scrape their content and reduce user clicks to their sites. Google said it's focused on making it easy for users to click through to sites, with more UI updates coming. AI Mode will also support new query types, follow-up questions, and new ranking opportunities. more

    • The company made similar claims when it launched AI Overviews, even saying it led to more clicks. But, third-party studies suggest otherwise, and Google is even facing lawsuits over it.

Social Media 📱

  • X is having a rough Monday: The platform has been facing repeated outages today, with posts failing to load on both mobile and desktop. The issues started around 5:40 AM, leaving some users stuck in a never-ending loading loop. more

    • Musk tweeted this afternoon, blaming the disruptions on a “massive cyberattack."

  • 🗣️ TikTalks in progress: Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was in talks with “four different groups” of potential buyers for TikTok but didn't didn’t specify who. Some, like a group led by former Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, have shown interest in acquiring TikTok’s U.S. assets, however, as recently as Friday, they said they had no insight into ByteDance’s willingness to sell. more

  • TikTok recently provided some tips for brands on creating engaging photo posts, including creating a compelling title, telling a story with your images, and providing a direct CTA. more

    • It also pushed detailed captions for better search visibility.

    • TikTok also recommends using relevant keywords to boost discovery.

    • The platform also included trending photo post themes, such as memes, event highlights, and tutorials.

  • Pinterest $PINS ( ▲ 1.23% ) is officially cracking down on AI-generated images flooding the platform, with a new policy that displays a label in the foreground of an image Pin when it detects AI generation or modification. The “AI generated” or “AI modified” tags are overlaid at the bottom left of the image. more

  • Instagram $META ( ▼ 0.35% ) is experimenting with a Discord-like 'community chat' feature that lets users create groups of up to 250 people around specific topics. Unlike broadcast channels, all members in the community chat can participate in discussions. The feature also includes moderation tools for admins to manage messages and members. more

    • It’s currently an internal prototype with no clear timeline for a potential launch.

  • 🫂 A reel bonding experience: Instagram is now live testing 'Blend,’ a new Reels sharing feature in messaging that will let users view a combined feed of AI-recommended content for them and a friend. Some users can now access it in their DM feed and invite others to join via message. more

    • Instead of sending individual Reels, the Blend feed shows content based on both users’ activity and adapts to their shared interests as future Reels are shared.

Commerce 🛒 

  • Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 2.0% ) , the king of e-commerce, couldn’t crack the code for social commerce. Its attempt to make shopping social with its TikTok-style feed, Inspire, ended last month with little surprise from advertisers. Digiday reports that the main issue seemed to be that shoppers weren’t used to buying products from Amazon in this social, discovery-driven way. more

The Luigi Threat Level: High 🚩 

  • 👾 It’s-a me, a mod’s nightmare!: Reddit's automatic moderation system has been flagging the word “Luigi” as potentially violent, even in harmless contexts like the video game Luigi's Mansion 3. more

    • A spokesperson for the company said that there’s no sitewide filter for the word “Luigi,” but auto-moderation tools are activated in certain cases, like subreddits with limited moderation, due to recent events involving Luigi Mangione.

The Ticker

📈 HOW DIGITAL MARKETING STOCKS ARE DOING

Social Media

$META ( ▼ 0.35% )  

Meta

$SNAP ( ▼ 0.56% )  

Snapchat

$PINS ( ▲ 1.23% )  

Pinterest

$RDDT ( ▼ 0.5% )  

Reddit

$YELP ( ▲ 0.55% )  

Yelp

Ad Platforms

$GOOG ( ▼ 0.01% )  

Google

$MSFT ( ▼ 0.01% )  

Microsoft

$AMZN ( ▲ 2.0% )  

Amazon

$SPOT ( ▲ 2.48% )  

Spotify

Ad Tech

$MGNI ( ▲ 0.97% )  

Magnite

$IAS ( ▼ 0.25% )  

Integral Ad Science

$TTD ( ▼ 1.4% )  

The Trade Desk

$CRTO ( ▲ 0.11% )  

Criteo

$DV ( ▼ 0.89% )  

DoubleVerify

Marketing Agencies

$OMC ( ▼ 0.44% )  

Omnicom Group

$IPG ( ▼ 0.31% )  

IPG Group

$WPPGY ( ▲ 0.96% )  

WPP

Today’s Trivia Question

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