It happens every time a new social media platform or app comes on the scene.

Marketers (those with room for experimentation in their ad budget) place a few test campaigns.

And more times than not, the CPM rates are tantalizingly low.

Sure, the reporting is bad. Sure, the pixels/CAPIs are barely functioning. But how about those $3 CPMs, amirite?? Hell, there was a time when $2 CPCs on Facebook were the norm.

Defying gravity

Nothing good lasts forever, and TikTok's CPMs are too starting the steady, predictable, depressing climb.

eMarketer's forecast calls for the difference between the average CPM on TikTok and Meta to be about $5.50. In Q1 2022, that split was $8.62.

As TikTok's ad rates increase, advertisers will demand greater value.

Popular

Even so, TikTok commands a decent amount of advertiser interest. Part of that is because despite the gap closing, TikTok's CPM are still pretty good — hovering just under $7 CPM on average right now.

TikTok's ad revenues are small compared to the Zuckercorp. eMarketer says it should hit about $10 billion this year. That might sound like a lot, but it's only about 16% of Meta's ad revenues.

What is this feeling?

TikTok wants more DTC/performance marketing dollars, and you can see this focus in their Shop and Live programs. (While, sadly, other parts of their ads platform like comment moderation remain frustratingly basic and lack an API.)

One short day

But all this could change tomorrow, when we find out if an American federal appeals court will uphold a previous court decision requiring TikTok's parent company to sell off its stake in the app. (See below.)

A TikTok ban in the US would increase CPMs on other social platforms. Ad spend would be transferred to Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, lifting prices there. 

An outright ban, though, seems unlikely. Only about a third of Americans support a government ban on the app (Pew Research; July/August.) And the company has been very successful in rallying influencers to say a ban would hurt small businesses and creators.

The Top Three 🥉

The industry’s most important stories today.

1 TIKTOK BAN
What the hell is going on with TikTok? A court ruling expected tomorrow could force ByteDance to sell or face a U.S. ban by 2025 under Biden’s Protecting Americans Act. more

• TikTok is fighting back, calling it a free speech violation.

• Depending on what the court decides, TikTok’s future—and marketers’ fate—could be left in the hands of president-elect Donald Trump.

2 CONSUMER SPENDING
Klaviyo's 2024 consumer spending report shows that while consumers are cautious, they remain willing to spend despite economic uncertainty. more

• 1 in 3 have cut back on discretionary spending since last year, but only a fifth plan to spend less this holiday season.

• Inflation concerns are high, with 97% of consumers aware of its impact on costs, and 90% saying it will influence their spending.

3 CONTENT TRENDS
Pinterest's 2025 trends report predicts bold, sensory-driven aesthetics will dominate the year. more

• Trends include the "Fisherman Aesthetic," with a maritime vibe and sardine tattoos. I'm not kidding, searches are booming for sardine tattoos.

• "Primary Play" and "Castlecore" will influence home décor and fashion, while "Pickle Fix" will see Gen X and Millennials incorporating pickles into everything—from pickle cakes to margaritas.

Today’s Other News ☑︎

Everything else that matters.

Advertising 📣

• Principal-based media buying, where agencies buy media and sell it back at a markup, is gaining traction despite controversy. more

• Nielsen's new TikTok measurement tool lets advertisers track audience engagement and compare ad performance across digital, TV, and linear platforms. more

• It’s about damn time: Marketers are realizing that relying on Meta and YouTube for advertising isn't enough anymore. An interesting thinkpiece from AdExchanger. more

• As cinema ad firms face a tough recovery post-pandemic, two networks have teamed up to offer programmatic inventory. more

Google Updates 🔍

• Google Search now has a button that lets users turn personalization off. (Which is cool, but they still knew what you searched for.) A small tweak, but a step towards more control in how search results are tailored. more

• Google Ads is finally testing new incentives for agencies to sign up new advertisers after complaints that agency perks sucked compared to direct offers. For example, Google Partners were stuck offering a $500 credit while direct sign-ups got $3000. That math ain't mathing. more

• More handcuffs (it’s NOT a fetish, Zuck): Google Ads is rolling out new policies for dating ads, effective March 4. Advertisers will also need to be certified to run ads in this category. The policies include restrictions on underage dating, mail-order spouses, and ads promoting fetishes. more

• Google Analytics has introduced two new features for tracking key events. more

  1. Mark as key event: Instantly mark an existing event as a key event.

  2. Create key event: Create and mark a new event from a page view in a single click.

Social Media 📱

• Who needs data, right? Meta is axing several Instagram metrics from its API starting January 8, 2025. Affected metrics will be available temporarily, but will be removed from reports in Q2 2025. more Say goodbye to:

  • profile_views (PA)

  • video_views

  • email_contacts (PA)

• TikTok has an updated Donation feature which lets brands and creators promote causes directly in-app by adding donation stickers to their content. It’s essentially a redesign, but a good one. more

• Meta released an overview of its election integrity efforts, likely aiming to ease tensions with a re-elected Trump, who vows revenge on those restricting his voice. The company admits policy errors have limited “free expression.” No word yet on whether Zuck will become a Trump/Musk ally, but that'd be the ultimate nightmare blunt rotation. more

• This is cool: Threads users can now follow people from other fediverse servers who interact with their posts. Now, when a fediverse user replies, you can tap their profile and follow them directly within the app. I wish Mastodon were easier to use because this is actually a huge deal. more

• LinkedIn has a new option that lets Premium users select up to five photos to create a rotating slideshow of banner images on their profile. No idea why you’d want this, but there you go. more

Commerce & Analytics 📈

• Amazon is being sued by the DC Attorney General, for allegedly slowing Prime deliveries in low-income areas of the District of Columbia and lying to customers who complained. The company denies the allegations. more

• Salesforce's stock jumped 30% after launching its AI agent. But it's too soon to assess whether AI agents will deliver long-term value for businesses. Gotta have those buzzwords in news releases, though. :-(  more

• Data analytics company Experian has acquired Audigent, a startup specializing in data management platforms (DMP). The terms of the deal were not disclosed. more

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